With the distinct possibility of pro sports resuming in empty venues, a recent poll suggests a majority of U.S. fans wouldn't feel safe attending games anyway without a COVID-19 vaccine.
According to the Seton Hall Sports Poll, 72 percent of Americans said they would not feel safe attending games without a vaccine, though the number dropped to 61 percent among people who identified themselves as sports fans. Nearly half the respondents in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, said they either didn't follow sports closely or didn't follow sports at all.
So even if fans are allowed back in stadiums or arenas, many may not come. And the financial losses in such a scenario will be significant without the revenue that comes from tickets, concessions and merchandise, among other things — even if money is flowing from lucrative media rights deals.
If the NBA and NHL have to cancel the rest of their seasons and Major League Baseball and Major League Soccer play only half their regular schedules, the losses in fan-related revenue could reach $3 billion, according to Patrick Rishe, director of the sports business program at Washington University in St. Louis.
"Those losses that I mentioned, both in ticket revenue and game day-related spending at the venues on food, beverage, parking, merchandise, you name it, that's money that's gone," Rishe said. "Even if money on tickets is credited to next season, it's still an opportunity lost. So it's pretty sizable."
David Carter, a professor in the sports business school at Southern California, said there is a difference between a sports fan and a sports consumer. The latter is more likely to return whenever fans are allowed into venues.
"I can't imagine that the sports consumers, or you might call them the committed fans or the hardcore fans, they're not going to stay away for a year," Carter said. "They're champing at the bit right now."
Baseball's TV deal averages about $1.5 billion annually and runs through next year, and the NBA is roughly halfway through a nine-year deal that pays about $2.6 billion each year. The NHL's rights deal is just $2 billion total for 10 years — an average of $200 million per season.
Carter wondered if owners and league officials are weighing TV money that comes with resuming play against the lost revenue of empty stadiums and arenas.
College football is facing its own set of questions, including whether students will be allowed back on campuses and when. The sport is critical to nearly all athletic department budgets and officials are bracing for significant dips in revenue even if games are played.
Schuyler Dixon