Over the next several weeks, we are going to be talking a lot about the draft, and the Carolina Panthers history of either mastering it or flopping hard. In this article, we explain the system we’ll use to hopefully simplify and analyze our drafts over time.
The NFL Draft is all about guessing and prediction, and now that the season has ended with another disappointing Super Bowl matchup, we are going to start predicting and prognosticating the hell out of it. Part of doing that is analyzing the Carolina Panthers needs and seeing how they line up with general manager Marty Hurney’s draft history.
To assist in giving Hurney an overall grade for how he has done drafting over the years, I’ve come up with a simple point system that grades each selection on two criteria.
Player Quality: Zero to six scale. Six points for a franchise cornerstone/hall of fame grade player, five for an excellent starter, four for a good starter, three for an average starter, two for quality depth/rotational player, one for depth, zero for a total non-contributing bust.
Pick Importance: Negative two to one scale. Negative two for first round picks, negative one for second and third round picks, zero for fourth and fifth rounders, and one point for anything beyond that. The logic here is that in the first round you need to at least grab an average starter to get a positive score, while ideally you should be getting someone great. Meanwhile in the late rounds, most prospects never become anything of note, so you aren’t penalized for that.
For scaling purposes, using this system Luke Kuechly (6 + -2) and Kawann Short (5 + -1) would both be a four, a guy like Tom Brady (6 + 1) would be a super rare seven, and Captain Munnerlyn (2 + 1) would be a three.
It is VERY IMPORTANT to note, these are not grades of individual players, but rather the value of the draft picks used to obtain them. This system expects you to do well with your early picks, while rewarding the occasional late round gem. This system does NOT attempt to factor in trade up or down scenarios, simply what became of the player based on when they were picked.
As an example, here is the breakdown of Marty Hurney’s final draft class before he originally was terminated in 2012.
Round 1 (9): Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College. (6 + -2 = 4)
As an example, Luke Kuechly is inarguably a franchise cornerstone and is awarded the maximum value of six points. He was selected in the first round, which carries a weight of -2 points because you are expected to get a good player with those picks. This makes the total score a four, because you nailed a pick you should nail.
Round 2 (40): Amini Silatolu, OG, Midwestern State (1 + -1 = 0)
As a further example, missing with a high pick really hurts you. Amini Silatolu has never even come close to living up to his draft billing, and is simply depth (and not good depth at that). His player quality score is just a one, and it’s cancelled out by his second round selection, essentially making him a bust.
Round 4 (103): Frank Alexander, DE, Oklahoma (2 + 0 = 2)
Round 4 (104): Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas (0 + 0 = 0)
Round 5 (143): Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina (4 + 0 = 4)
Round 6 (207): Brad Nortman, P, Wisconsin (3 + 1 = 4)
Round 7 (216): D.J. Campbell, FS, California (0 + 1 = 1)
Final Draft score is 15 divided by 7 which equals 2.14. An average draft that could have been great without a massive bust in the second round.
Look for position specific articles that analyze Marty Hurney over a long period of time coming up in the next few weeks as our offseason coverage begins in earnest here on CSR.