The Panthers may have struck salary cap gold with their fourth round tight end
As we reflect back on 2018 and look forward to 2019’s roster needs, this is a good time to shine a spotlight the value of successful mid-round picks like tight end Ian Thomas.
The Carolina Panthers invested a 2018 fourth round pick (No. 101 overall) in Thomas, a raw, athletic prospect with upside coming out of Indiana. Fortunately for the Panthers it looks like they may have nailed this selection. Thomas made meaningful contributions and demonstrated noticeable improvement throughout his rookie campaign. This isn’t always the case for mid-round picks with terms like “raw” and “upside” attached to their names.
Getting solid contributions from mid-round picks on rookie contracts is one of the most significant competitive advantages in the NFL. It opens up millions of salary cap dollars for teams to use elsewhere. Let’s now collectively salivate over Ian Thomas’ delicious cap hit by year during his 4-year, $3.2 million rookie deal, per Over the Cap:
2018: $667k
2019: $757k
2020: $847k
2021: $937k
Remember, this is a rookie who produced 25 receptions for 246 yards and two touchdowns over the Panthers final five games. If he can continue to build his rapport with Cam Newton and learn from Greg Olsen in 2019, his production in 2020 and 2021 has the potential to dwarf his cap hit.
In the NFL a player’s value isn’t measured by comparing his production to every other player at his position. True value is measured by production relative to a player’s cap hit, making young, inexpensive contributors like Thomas an incredibly valuable asset for teams with limited cap space like the Panthers.
Finding productive mid-round picks is far from a sure thing. There’s a reason most guys taken in the fourth and fifth rounds, for example, are still available. The Panthers drafted 24 players in the fourth and fifth rounds between 2006 and 2017, per Football Reference. Of those 24 players only nine have started more than six games in their careers. By my estimation, only three became consistent impact players - Josh Norman, Daryl Williams (pre-injury), and A.J. Klein.
While Ian Thomas exceeded expectations in his rookie campaign and we have reason to be optimistic about his future, there are no guarantees he gets significantly better from here. He won’t catch opposing defenses by surprise anymore. He can improve as a blocker and route runner. His opportunities in 2019 will largely be a function of Greg Olsen’s health. Many players look promising early in their careers then flame out under the rigors of the NFL.
That said, it’s reasonable today to pencil in Ian Thomas as the Panthers starting tight end of the future. With yearly caps hits below $1 million through 2021 the Panthers didn’t just make a good pick with Ian Thomas, they may have struck gold.