(Andy Cohen In the Morning – AC in the AM – will appear on Dolphins.com during the offseason as events warrant. You can also follow AC in the AM by twitter at @acohenfins).
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My gut tells me that sometime this evening the Dolphins are going to take a defensive end or a linebacker with the 22nd pick of the first round. They are areas of need, but they are also areas of abundant talent in this draft. Either position would make sense for so many reasons.
But what we don’t know, what we won’t know until this first round plays out, is what other temptations will still be on the board when the Dolphins select. That’s part of the intrigue of what has long been one of the most anticipated days of the NFL calendar. You hear what the experts say. You read and re-read every mock draft. You think you’ve got it figured out.
And then a couple of players are selected who you had going in the second or third round, or a first round talent starts slipping, and suddenly the draft turns upside down. Suddenly, you no longer have it figured out. It happens every year. Happened last year with Laremy Tunsil
Why waste your time interviewing and studying players who aren’t supposed to be available when you select? Because you never know how things will unfold. The last interview at the Indy Combine, the one late at night when your eyes are battling to stay open, may turn out to be the most important. The one player you think has no chance to be there may just be the one you select.
The lesson here and the one you need to keep in mind as the names go off the board tonight is that you’ve got to expect the unexpected. See, there is no desperation coming into play here and that’s good. The Dolphins aren’t tied into one position or one player. The free agency signings over the past few months gave them the flexibility to go in all sorts of directions when their number is called.
That’s the upside of where this franchise currently resides. “We’ll pick the highest rated player on our board,” said General Manager Chris Grier.
At this exact moment, the Dolphins have seven picks, though VP Mike Tannenbaum has been known to wheel and deal for more picks. If this were done strictly on need, the Dolphins would use six of those picks on a defensive tackle, defensive end, linebacker, cornerback, safety and offensive guard. Not because there aren’t starters already in place, but because there are concerns about depth in the short term and age in the long term.
At this point, only a first round selection of a quarterback, receiver or running back would qualify as a surprise. Everything else seems to be in play. Even a tight end is within the realm of possibility, considering all the playmakers at that position in this draft.
I don’t pretend to be a draft guru. I haven’t spent the last several months going over 40 times and vertical jumps. But I can tell you that the Dolphins’ biggest priority heading into this offseason was improving a run defense that ranked 30th in the league a season ago.
The Dolphins made some important moves in that direction during free agency, most notably the signings of linebacker Lawrence TimmonsWilliam Hayes
They know that can’t continue. They know in order for this team to continue its ascent, in order for third downs to become fourth downs, there must be a whole lot of improvement stopping the run. This three-day draft is the next step in that process and I really look for the Dolphins to spend many of those draft picks focusing on that need.
But the first pick? We can guess. We can speculate. We can take the sum total of all those mock drafts and see whose name is most often mentioned. But the truth of the matter is that not even Tannenbaum and Grier have a comfortable feel of how this first round will go.
That’s what makes tonight so suspenseful. That’s why they have combed through so many names, studied so much tape and conducted so many interviews, even if it meant talking to a player who logic said wouldn’t be there at No. 22.
Yes, Decision Day has arrived. The question we all want to know: How much better will the Dolphins be when the evening is over?